Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 9, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 85.0¢
- Implied chance
- 85.0%
- Return if right
- 17.6%
- Spread cost
- 69%
If you put in $100
You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.
YES wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $38.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $56.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 57.0¢
- Implied chance
- 57.0%
- Return if right
- 75.4%
- Spread cost
- 58%
If you put in $100
You get 175.4 shares at 57.0¢ each.
NO wins: $175.44 back, a profit of $75.44. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $102.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $177.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 26, 06:15 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Lebanon’s Efforts to Tame Hezbollah Stall Amid Israel WarThe New York Times · 4d ago
- Israel Strikes Lebanon as US Prepares Fresh Iran Sanctions | The Asia Trade 8/17/2026Bloomberg · 10d ago
- Why has Israel escalated attacks in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire?Al Jazeera · 10d ago
- Israel strikes south Lebanon again as families flee northAl Jazeera · 11d ago
- Iran war live: Talks on Hormuz Strait continue; Israel kills 11 in LebanonAl Jazeera · 11d ago
- Lebanese Americans sue US over Israel’s rights abuses in Lebanon warAl Jazeera · 13d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 9, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.