Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 88.0¢
- Implied chance
- 88.0%
- Return if right
- 13.6%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.
YES wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.94.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 14.0¢
- Implied chance
- 14.0%
- Return if right
- 614.3%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 714.3 shares at 14.0¢ each.
NO wins: $714.29 back, a profit of $614.29. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $54.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $669.23.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Anguished locals watch as Israel demolishes homes in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Lebanon points to ‘positive progress’ on borders, prisoners in Israel talksAl Jazeera · 4d ago
- ‘No red line’: South Lebanon residents outraged as Israel resumes strikesAl Jazeera · 5d ago
- Israel strikes south Lebanon after two soldiers killed by explosionBBC News · 6d ago
- Israel strikes southern Lebanon killing one and injuring 11The Guardian · 6d ago
- Israel resumes military strikes on southern Lebanon as Rome hosts peace talksFrance 24 · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.