Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 45.0¢
- Implied chance
- 45.0%
- Return if right
- 122.2%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 222.2 shares at 45.0¢ each.
YES wins: $222.22 back, a profit of $122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $124.72.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 56.0¢
- Implied chance
- 56.0%
- Return if right
- 78.6%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 178.6 shares at 56.0¢ each.
NO wins: $178.57 back, a profit of $78.57. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $80.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 9, 08:50 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Google Wants Gemini to Be Your Next Coworker—Complete With Its Own Email AddressDecrypt · 1d ago
- Google brings agentic AI to Gemini, starting with businessesTechCrunch · 1d ago
- Google unveils Gemini AI agent to handle workplace tasksCBS News · 1d ago
- Google is launching a one-stop Gemini agent for your work tasksThe Verge · 1d ago
- Google is about to remove free access to Gemini Flash and ProThe Verge · 3d ago
- Gemini Call for Me might tell your mom you’re running lateThe Verge · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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