Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.1¢
- Implied chance
- 0.1%
- Return if right
- 99900.0%
- Spread cost
- n/a
If you put in $100
You get 100000.0 shares at 0.1¢ each.
YES wins: $100000.00 back, a profit of $99900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 23, 11:57 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Gemini 4 is almost ready, says new Google DeepMind chiefThe Verge · 4h ago
- Gemini AI Predicts BTC Price as Strive Buys 1,355 BitcoinYahoo Finance · 2d ago
- Google Admits Gemini AI Hacked Three Companies—It Stayed Silent for 7 WeeksDecrypt · 3d ago
- Google confirms Gemini models hacked three companies in May 2026Ars Technica · 3d ago
- Alphabet Pushes Deeper Into Voice AI With New Gemini ModelsYahoo Finance · 3d ago
- Google’s $899 Googlebook is a bet that you’ll buy a new laptop for GeminiTechCrunch · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.