Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 49.0¢
- Implied chance
- 49.0%
- Return if right
- 104.1%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 204.1 shares at 49.0¢ each.
YES wins: $204.08 back, a profit of $104.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $106.19.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 52.0¢
- Implied chance
- 52.0%
- Return if right
- 92.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 192.3 shares at 52.0¢ each.
NO wins: $192.31 back, a profit of $92.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $94.17.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Bryson DeChambeau addresses Donald Trump meeting with Saudi PIF head at LIV Golf event: having 'conversations'Fox News · 2h ago
- In Maine, the new politics meets the oldThe Hill · 6h ago
- Meet the winners of a Paw Patrol look-alike contestCBS News · 6h ago
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Has Held Rates Steady in Back-to-Back Meetings Since Taking Over in 2026. What His Cautious Start Means for Markets.Yahoo Finance · 7h ago
- Fed Rate Hike in December Is Possible, Macquarie's Wizman SaysBloomberg · 11h ago
- The Federal Reserve Just Released Its August Inflation Forecast, and It Could Put the FOMC on a Collision Course for Its September MeetingYahoo Finance · 22h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.