Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Fed rate hike by...?$62k liquidity$746k volumecloses 4.0mo
FedJerome PowellInflationFinancefomcFed Rates
Trade on Polymarket
Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY YES

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Cost
40.0¢
Implied chance
40.0%
Return if right
150.0%
Spread cost
4%

If you put in $100

You get 250.0 shares at 40.0¢ each.

YES wins: $250.00 back, a profit of $150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $156.41.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

Buy NO on Polymarket

BUY NO

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We keep it in one place with the price you saw, and email you when it settles or moves sharply. It is free, and the screener stays open to everyone either way.

Cost
62.0¢
Implied chance
62.0%
Return if right
61.3%
Spread cost
4%

If you put in $100

You get 161.3 shares at 62.0¢ each.

NO wins: $161.29 back, a profit of $61.29. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $63.93.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

0%25%50%75%100%40%48%Aug 3Aug 10

Latest: Aug 10, 04:55 PM

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in Fed rate hike by...?

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