Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.9¢
- Implied chance
- 4.9%
- Return if right
- 1940.8%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 2040.8 shares at 4.9¢ each.
YES wins: $2040.82 back, a profit of $1940.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $258.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $2198.85.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.2¢
- Implied chance
- 96.2%
- Return if right
- 4.0%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 104.0 shares at 96.2¢ each.
NO wins: $103.95 back, a profit of $3.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 18, 10:32 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.