Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 30.0¢
- Implied chance
- 30.0%
- Return if right
- 233.3%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 333.3 shares at 30.0¢ each.
YES wins: $333.33 back, a profit of $233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $111.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $344.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 85.0¢
- Implied chance
- 85.0%
- Return if right
- 17.6%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.
NO wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.03.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- March 2027 Meeting20.5%
- July 2027 Meeting48.5%
- April 2027 Meeting42.0%
- June 2027 Meeting42.0%
- January 2027 Meeting9.5%
- December 2026 Meeting2.5%
Latest: Sep 23, 11:38 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2027, currently scheduled for March 16 to 17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.