EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.4¢
- Implied chance
- 4.4%
- Return if right
- 2172.7%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 2272.7 shares at 4.4¢ each.
YES wins: $2272.73 back, a profit of $2172.73. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $258.92 of that profit. Without it you would make $2431.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.5¢
- Implied chance
- 96.5%
- Return if right
- 3.6%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 103.6 shares at 96.5¢ each.
NO wins: $103.63 back, a profit of $3.63. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Poland boosts air defence after ‘Russian provocations’ amid Ukraine warAl Jazeera · 17h ago
- Russia targeting 'ordinary life' with attacks on Ukraine's data centres, Zelensky saysBBC News · 17h ago
- EU releases €6.6 billion for members arming Ukraine as seven killed in KyivFrance 24 · 18h ago
- Zelensky says Trump gave final OK on Patriot license for UkraineThe Hill · 19h ago
- US seeking to revive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talksAl Jazeera · 23h ago
- Trump made ‘final decision’ to allow Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles, Zelensky saysFrance 24 · 23h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by D…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO or EU member country officially announces that they will be sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between a NATO or EU member country and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.