Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by October 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $43.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $852.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a court issues any order — including a temporary restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction, or other relief — that has the effect of prohibiting or suspending the sale of paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying order includes one that requires official government information to be released to the public simultaneously with, or before, its provision to paying subscribers, if such an order has the effect of eliminating the paid early-access advantage. A qualifying order issued within the market timeframe will resolve this market "Yes" regardless of whether it is later vacated, reversed, stayed, or superseded, and regardless of its stated duration. The primary resolution sources will be official court records and filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.