Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.0¢
- Implied chance
- 9.0%
- Return if right
- 1011.1%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $65.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $1076.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.59 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 5, 04:19 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Yemeni government forces say they have 'secured' Bab al-Mandab StraitBBC News · 2h ago
- ICE Offers Tanker Derivatives for Route Outside Strait of HormuzBloomberg · 6h ago
- Iran war live: Hormuz Strait closed until US meets seven agreed conditionsAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Oil Flows Are Up, but Iran Is Still Menacing the Strait of HormuzThe New York Times · 4d ago
- Getting Oil and Gas Through Hormuz Strait Is Dangerous Job for Ship CaptainsBloomberg · 4d ago
- Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre-war levelsThe Guardian · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.