Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
This market's closing date is missing or already in the past (source: endDateIso). Any yield figure below is derived from that date and should not be trusted.
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.1¢
- Implied chance
- 0.1%
- Return if right
- 99900.0%
- Spread cost
- n/a
If you put in $100
You get 100000.0 shares at 0.1¢ each.
YES wins: $100000.00 back, a profit of $99900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 08:50 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ed Miliband meets Iran’s foreign minister as Tehran gives US ultimatum on strait of HormuzThe Guardian · 2h ago
- Iran “Offered” to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz. These Stocks Could Be the Biggest WinnersYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Iran: Strait of Hormuz won’t be used to ‘impose insecurity on us’Al Jazeera · 1d ago
- ‘No legal grounds for fees on international strait’, says IOM chiefAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- US, Iran hold mediated UNGA talks on ending war, opening Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Macron tells ABC News' David Muir: 'Hormuz Strait was probably underestimated'ABC News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.