Set Handicap: Denis Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Tallon Griekspoor (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Denis Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Tallon Griekspoor (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 39%. A YES share costs 39.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 156.4% over 6d.

Chengdu Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Denis Shapovalov$6k liquidity$107 volumecloses 6d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 39.0¢
Implied chance: 39.0%
Return if right: 156.4%
Spread cost: 4%

If you put in $100

You get 256.4 shares at 39.0¢ each.

YES wins: $256.41 back, a profit of $156.41. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $163.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 63.0¢
Implied chance: 63.0%
Return if right: 58.7%
Spread cost: 4%

If you put in $100

You get 158.7 shares at 63.0¢ each.

NO wins: $158.73 back, a profit of $58.73. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $61.29.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 09:00 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Denis Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Tallon Griekspoor (…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Denis Shapovalov and Tallon Griekspoor in the Chengdu Open, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Denis Shapovalov" if Denis Shapovalov wins by 2 or more sets than Tallon Griekspoor, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Tallon Griekspoor." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Denis Shapovalov can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Tallon Griekspoor." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current