Set Handicap: Baez (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Baez (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 37%. A YES share costs 37.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 170.3% over 8d.

Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris$2k liquidity$0 volumecloses 8d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 37.0¢
Implied chance: 37.0%
Return if right: 170.3%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 270.3 shares at 37.0¢ each.

YES wins: $270.27 back, a profit of $170.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $19.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $189.86.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 68.0¢
Implied chance: 68.0%
Return if right: 47.1%
Spread cost: 11%

If you put in $100

You get 147.1 shares at 68.0¢ each.

NO wins: $147.06 back, a profit of $47.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $52.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 22, 08:41 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Lloyd Harris in the Cancun, originally scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 8:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Baez" if Sebastian Baez wins by 2 or more sets than Lloyd Harris, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Harris." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current