Baez vs. Harris: Match O/U 22.5

Q: Baez vs. Harris: Match O/U 22.5

Prediction markets currently price this at 52%. A YES share costs 52.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 92.3% over 8d.

Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris$2k liquidity$0 volumecloses 8d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 52.0¢
Implied chance: 52.0%
Return if right: 92.3%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 192.3 shares at 52.0¢ each.

YES wins: $192.31 back, a profit of $92.31. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 51.0¢
Implied chance: 51.0%
Return if right: 96.1%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 196.1 shares at 51.0¢ each.

NO wins: $196.08 back, a profit of $96.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 22, 08:41 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Baez vs. Harris: Match O/U 22.5”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Lloyd Harris in the Cancun, originally scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 8:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 23. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. The primary resolution source for this market will be official Challenger statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current