Game Spread: Arnaldi (-0.5) vs Duckworth (+0.5)

Q: Game Spread: Arnaldi (-0.5) vs Duckworth (+0.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 53%. A YES share costs 53.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 88.7% over 9d.

US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth$4k liquidity$0 volumecloses 9d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 53.0¢
Implied chance: 53.0%
Return if right: 88.7%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 188.7 shares at 53.0¢ each.

YES wins: $188.68 back, a profit of $88.68. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $94.17.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 50.0¢
Implied chance: 50.0%
Return if right: 100.0%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 200.0 shares at 50.0¢ each.

NO wins: $200.00 back, a profit of $100.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $106.19.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 28, 09:45 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Game Spread: Arnaldi (-0.5) vs Duckworth (+0.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Arnaldi" if Matteo Arnaldi wins 0.5 or more total games than James Duckworth in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Duckworth". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the match ends at a point where Matteo Arnaldi could no longer have finished 0.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Duckworth". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current