Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $253.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $1403.76.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.7¢
- Implied chance
- 94.7%
- Return if right
- 5.6%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 105.6 shares at 94.7¢ each.
NO wins: $105.60 back, a profit of $5.60. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.12.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- 'Total incinerated destruction': Canada wildfire evacuees wonder if they still have homesBBC News · 3h ago
- BlackRock launches two Canada ETFs, with one allocating 3% to BitcoinCointelegraph · 3h ago
- Canada: Octogenarian is first killed in British Columbia wildfireFrance 24 · 4h ago
- IBM to Raise C$2.75 Billion in First Canada Bond Sale Since 2012Bloomberg · 4h ago
- Wildfires rage, force evacuations in western U.S., Canada amid droughtCBS News · 6h ago
- Wildfires burn across western US and Canada as residents are evacuatedThe Hill · 8h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.