Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Rybakina

Q: Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Rybakina

Prediction markets currently price this at 51%. A YES share costs 51.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 96.1% over 8d.

National Bank Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina$1k liquidity$0 volumecloses 8d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 51.0¢
Implied chance: 51.0%
Return if right: 96.1%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 196.1 shares at 51.0¢ each.

YES wins: $196.08 back, a profit of $96.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 52.0¢
Implied chance: 52.0%
Return if right: 92.3%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 192.3 shares at 52.0¢ each.

NO wins: $192.31 back, a profit of $92.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 10:57 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Osaka, Gauff race into Canadian Open quarters as Rybakina survives scareAl Jazeera · 14h ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Rybakina”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Elena Rybakina in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Osaka” if Naomi Osaka wins set 2. It will resolve to “Rybakina” if Elena Rybakina wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics.

Source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores