Set 1 Winner: Gauff vs Rybakina

Q: Set 1 Winner: Gauff vs Rybakina

Prediction markets currently price this at 54%. A YES share costs 54.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 85.2% over 8d.

National Bank Open: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina$23k liquidity$0 volumecloses 8d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 54.0¢
Implied chance: 54.0%
Return if right: 85.2%
Spread cost: 4%

If you put in $100

You get 185.2 shares at 54.0¢ each.

YES wins: $185.19 back, a profit of $85.19. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $88.68.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 48.0¢
Implied chance: 48.0%
Return if right: 108.3%
Spread cost: 4%

If you put in $100

You get 208.3 shares at 48.0¢ each.

NO wins: $208.33 back, a profit of $108.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $112.77.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 12, 08:14 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Osaka, Gauff race into Canadian Open quarters as Rybakina survives scareAl Jazeera · 2d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 1 Winner: Gauff vs Rybakina”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 8:30PM ET. This market will resolve to “Gauff” if Coco Gauff wins the first set. It will resolve to “Rybakina” if Elena Rybakina wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics.

Source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores