Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?

Q: Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 3%. A YES share costs 2.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 3348.3% over 4.7mo.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?$8k liquidity$28k volumecloses 4.7mo

PoliticsXiChinaGeopoliticsoustWorld

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 2.9¢
Implied chance: 2.9%
Return if right: 3348.3%
Spread cost: 26%

If you put in $100

You get 3448.3 shares at 2.9¢ each.

YES wins: $3448.28 back, a profit of $3348.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1202.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $4551.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.6¢
Implied chance: 98.6%
Return if right: 1.4%
Spread cost: 35%

If you put in $100

You get 101.4 shares at 98.6¢ each.

NO wins: $101.42 back, a profit of $1.42. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.20.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 08:56 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Xi Jinping warns world is ‘crumbling into disarray’ as 'dangerous' U.S. blockade hits markets. Protect your nest egg nowYahoo Finance · 8d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor. 2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect. A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.