Will Wu Shu-chin win the next Penghu County Magistrate election?

Q: Will Wu Shu-chin win the next Penghu County Magistrate election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 58%. A YES share costs 58.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 72.4% over 10.5mo.

Penghu County Magistrate Election Winner$58 liquidity$0 volumecloses 10.5mo

TaiwanPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 58.0¢
Implied chance: 58.0%
Return if right: 72.4%
Spread cost: 66%

If you put in $100

You get 172.4 shares at 58.0¢ each.

YES wins: $172.41 back, a profit of $72.41. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $140.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $212.50.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.0¢
Implied chance: 94.0%
Return if right: 6.4%
Spread cost: 86%

If you put in $100

You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.

NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $40.68 of that profit. Without it you would make $47.06.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 14, 07:41 PM

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Penghu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).