Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027?

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?$25k liquidity$4k volumecloses 10.6mo
FedfomcTrumpWarshEconomyPolitics
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Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY YES

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Cost
11.0¢
Implied chance
11.0%
Return if right
809.1%
Spread cost
5%

If you put in $100

You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.

YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $43.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $852.38.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

Buy NO on Polymarket

BUY NO

Create an account to follow this trade

We keep it in one place with the price you saw, and email you when it settles or moves sharply. It is free, and the screener stays open to everyone either way.

Cost
90.0¢
Implied chance
90.0%
Return if right
11.1%
Spread cost
5%

If you put in $100

You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.

NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.73.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

0%25%50%75%100%11%6%Aug 3Aug 10

Latest: Aug 10, 08:15 PM

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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