Will voters pick the Winchester Model 1873 "Gun that Won the West" (.44-40) as the state gun of Idaho?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 70.0¢
- Implied chance
- 70.0%
- Return if right
- 42.9%
- Spread cost
- 68%
If you put in $100
You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.
YES wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $89.70 of that profit. Without it you would make $132.56.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 75%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $56.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $75.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Winchester Model 187343.0%
- Colt M191117.0%
- Winchester Model 189433.0%
- M1 Garand26.5%
- Colt Peacemaker17.0%
- Remington Model 7007.0%
Latest: Aug 11, 06:40 AM
Latest news
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How this market resolves
The Idaho Official State Gun Question is an advisory ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would inform the state legislature as to the voters' choice for a state gun. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Idaho Official State Gun Question in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named options will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more options are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the options. This market will resolve to the option that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).
Other outcomes in What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?
- Will voters pick the Remington Model 700 bolt-action rifle (.30-06) as the state gun of Idaho?
- Will voters pick the Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) as the state gun of Idaho?
- Will voters pick the 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver "Peacemaker" (.45 Colt) as the state gun of Idaho?
- Will voters pick the M1 Garand rifle (.30-06) as the state gun of Idaho?
- Will voters pick the Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP) as the state gun of Idaho?