Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 28.0¢
- Implied chance
- 28.0%
- Return if right
- 257.1%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 357.1 shares at 28.0¢ each.
YES wins: $357.14 back, a profit of $257.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $68.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $325.53.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 81.0¢
- Implied chance
- 81.0%
- Return if right
- 23.5%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 123.5 shares at 81.0¢ each.
NO wins: $123.46 back, a profit of $23.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $30.72.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 8, 12:57 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Serbian populist leader Vucic launches campaign for prime ministerAl Jazeera · 4d ago
- GOP Reps urge Trump to reimpose sanctions on Russian-owned Serbian refineryThe Hill · 10d ago
- Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic resigns amid prolonged protestsAl Jazeera · 10d ago
- Embattled Serbian president resigns, paving way for early electionsBBC News · 10d ago
- Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announces resignationDeutsche Welle · 10d ago
- 🔴 Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic resigns, expected to run for prime ministerFrance 24 · 10d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary electio…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2023 example: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2024/Pdf/G20246006.pdf). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (Republička izborna komisija, https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Source: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2024/Pdf/G20246006.pdf
Other outcomes in Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
- Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?
- Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 58-62%?
- Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be less than 58%?
- Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?