Will voter turnout be 84% or higher in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.6¢
- Implied chance
- 5.6%
- Return if right
- 1685.7%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 1785.7 shares at 5.6¢ each.
YES wins: $1785.71 back, a profit of $1685.71. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $778.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $2464.10.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.8¢
- Implied chance
- 97.8%
- Return if right
- 2.2%
- Spread cost
- 45%
If you put in $100
You get 102.2 shares at 97.8¢ each.
NO wins: $102.25 back, a profit of $2.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:24 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- New Zealand Slaps New Sanctions Against Russia After US MoveBloomberg · 3d ago
- New Zealand is Racing to Vaccinate Its Endangered Birds Against Bird FluThe New York Times · 5d ago
- New Zealand capital delights in rare snowfall as southern city residents ski down world’s steepest streetThe Guardian · 6d ago
- Nine Lives, the feral cat that terrorised New Zealand’s rare ducks, is caught after three yearsThe Guardian · 6d ago
- New Zealand Has Ended Greyhound Racing. Now It Has to Manage the Aftermath.The New York Times · 7d ago
- New Zealand legislation recognising English an official language ridiculed as ‘pathetic’The Guardian · 8d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will voter turnout be 84% or higher in the 2026 New Zealand …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Other outcomes in New Zealand Election: Turnout
- Will voter turnout be less than 76% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
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- Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
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