Will Volker Bajus win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?

Q: Will Volker Bajus win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 10%. A YES share costs 9.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 910.1% over 1.1mo.

Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner$4k liquidity$692 volumecloses 1.1mo

GermanyMayoralPoliticsElectionsOsnabrückLower Saxony

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 9.9¢
Implied chance: 9.9%
Return if right: 910.1%
Spread cost: 37%

If you put in $100

You get 1010.1 shares at 9.9¢ each.

YES wins: $1010.10 back, a profit of $910.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $540.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $1450.39.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.0¢
Implied chance: 97.0%
Return if right: 3.1%
Spread cost: 55%

If you put in $100

You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.

NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.89.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 06:17 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The next Osnabrück mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 13, 2026, to elect the mayor of Osnabrück, Germany (Oberbürgermeister der Stadt Osnabrück). A runoff election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Osnabrück as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Stadt Osnabrück, including its election office and municipal election committee.