Will Venezuela become 51st state?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.1¢
- Implied chance
- 3.1%
- Return if right
- 3125.8%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 3225.8 shares at 3.1¢ each.
YES wins: $3225.81 back, a profit of $3125.81. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $107.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $3233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.1¢
- Implied chance
- 97.1%
- Return if right
- 3.0%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 103.0 shares at 97.1¢ each.
NO wins: $102.99 back, a profit of $2.99. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.09.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ICC body urges Chad and Venezuela to reverse course on withdrawalAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- US-backed Venezuela political transition talks begin without Nobel laureate MachadoFrance 24 · 4d ago
- US-backed Venezuela political transition talks begin without Nobel laureate MachadoFrance 24 · 4d ago
- Venezuela’s Response to Earthquakes Exposes Government’s ShortcomingsThe New York Times · 4d ago
- Venezuela’s Oil Production Grows at a Crucial Time Despite ChallengesYahoo Finance · 5d ago
- Demolition complicates the search for bodies after Venezuela’s earthquakesAl Jazeera · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Venezuela become 51st state?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.