Will USFP win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

Q: Will USFP win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2464.1% over 1.5mo.

Morocco Legislative Elections: Party Winner$11k liquidity$479 volumecloses 1.5mo

MoroccoPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.9¢
Implied chance: 3.9%
Return if right: 2464.1%
Spread cost: 19%

If you put in $100

You get 2564.1 shares at 3.9¢ each.

YES wins: $2564.10 back, a profit of $2464.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $560.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $3025.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.5¢
Implied chance: 97.5%
Return if right: 2.6%
Spread cost: 22%

If you put in $100

You get 102.6 shares at 97.5¢ each.

NO wins: $102.56 back, a profit of $2.56. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.31.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 06:00 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Legislative elections to elect the House of Representatives of Morocco are scheduled to take place on September 23, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of Morocco as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose abbreviation as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Moroccan government, including the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.elections.ma/). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.