Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 7.4¢
- Implied chance
- 7.4%
- Return if right
- 1251.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 1351.4 shares at 7.4¢ each.
YES wins: $1351.35 back, a profit of $1251.35. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $27.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $1279.31.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.9¢
- Implied chance
- 92.9%
- Return if right
- 7.6%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 107.6 shares at 92.9¢ each.
NO wins: $107.64 back, a profit of $7.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.17 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.