Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?

Q: Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?

Prediction markets currently price this at 40%. A YES share costs 40.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 150.0% over 18d.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory$1k liquidity$2k volumecloses 18d

SerbiaPoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsMargin of VictoryInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 40.0¢
Implied chance: 40.0%
Return if right: 150.0%
Spread cost: 40%

If you put in $100

You get 250.0 shares at 40.0¢ each.

YES wins: $250.00 back, a profit of $150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $100.88 of that profit. Without it you would make $250.88.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 83.0¢
Implied chance: 83.0%
Return if right: 20.5%
Spread cost: 49%

If you put in $100

You get 120.5 shares at 83.0¢ each.

NO wins: $120.48 back, a profit of $20.48. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $19.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $39.86.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Oct 8, 01:54 AM2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two electoral lists in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place electoral lists. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two lists receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia attributes them to the named electoral list. Vote percentages attributed to other lists or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a list other than Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia or Student List – Students Win receives the most valid votes, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. If two or more lists tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).