Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.8¢
- Implied chance
- 3.8%
- Return if right
- 2531.6%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 2631.6 shares at 3.8¢ each.
YES wins: $2631.58 back, a profit of $2531.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $309.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $2841.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.52.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 10:35 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russ…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Other outcomes in How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
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- Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?