Will United Russia (ER) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

• Russian Athletics files new claim against sanctionsBBC Sport · 3h ago
• Russian forces in Syria will give up control of two strategic bases on the Mediterranean coastFrance 24 · 3h ago
• Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian city of Nizhnekamsk kills 12, authorities sayABC News · 3h ago
• Ukraine drone strike on Russian oil-refining city kills 12 peopleFrance 24 · 3h ago
• Ukraine: Russian bombs injure five civilians in Sumy, authorities sayFrance 24 · 6h ago
• Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian city of Nizhnekamsk kills 12, authorities sayNPR · 7h ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will United Russia (ER) win the third-most seats in the next…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.