Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Q: Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 99%. A YES share costs 98.7¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1.3% over 1.7mo.

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner$141k liquidity$749k volumecloses 1.7mo

PoliticsRussia ElectionMain ElectionputinRussiaWorld

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 98.7¢
Implied chance: 98.7%
Return if right: 1.3%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 101.3 shares at 98.7¢ each.

YES wins: $101.32 back, a profit of $1.32. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.47.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 1.6¢
Implied chance: 1.6%
Return if right: 6150.0%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 6250.0 shares at 1.6¢ each.

NO wins: $6250.00 back, a profit of $6150.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $646.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $6796.55.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

United Russia (ER)98.6%

Latest: Aug 10, 10:47 AM7 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.