Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 44%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $629.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $1438.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.0¢
- Implied chance
- 98.0%
- Return if right
- 2.0%
- Spread cost
- 71%
If you put in $100
You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.
NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 8, 01:54 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israeli parties submit slates for October Knesset electionsAl Jazeera · 29d ago
- Israeli soldiers block Knesset member from besieged Palestinian homeAl Jazeera · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote i…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Source: https://www.bechirot.gov.il/
Other outcomes in Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share?
- Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?