Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 47.0¢
- Implied chance
- 47.0%
- Return if right
- 112.8%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 212.8 shares at 47.0¢ each.
YES wins: $212.77 back, a profit of $112.77. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $117.39.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 55.0¢
- Implied chance
- 55.0%
- Return if right
- 81.8%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.
NO wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $85.19.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 25, 11:09 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Is the AfD’s Ulrich Siegmund Germany’s ‘most dangerous man’?Al Jazeera · 19d ago
- Germany: AfD's Ulrich Siegmund eyes outright majorityFrance 24 · 19d ago
- In Germany, Ulrich Siegmund Is Bringing the AfD to the Cusp of PowerThe New York Times · 20d ago
- AfD's Ulrich Siegmund has plans for Saxony-Anhalt and beyondDeutsche Welle · 25d ago
- Ulrich Siegmund wants to make Saxony-Anhalt a model for AfD ruleDeutsche Welle · 25d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachs…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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