Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $288.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $1438.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.0¢
- Implied chance
- 95.0%
- Return if right
- 5.3%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 105.3 shares at 95.0¢ each.
NO wins: $105.26 back, a profit of $5.26. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Civilian casualties climb as Russia and Ukraine exchange fresh strikesFrance 24 · 17m ago
- ‘New level of danger’: Drone incidents scare Europe amid Russia-Ukraine warAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Russian Civilian Deaths Are Growing Rapidly as Ukraine Expands Its Air WarThe New York Times · 3h ago
- Zelenskyy says Russia using North Korean missiles in UkraineCBS News · 4h ago
- Russia using North Korean missiles to strike Ukraine, Zelensky saysBBC News · 4h ago
- Ukraine’s 40-day campaign has not brought the war closer to an endAl Jazeera · 5h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 202…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine and the European Union formally sign an accession treaty by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying accession treaty will be a binding agreement that establishes the terms of Ukraine's potential future membership in the European Union, including agreements that provide for partial or limited membership or that contain exemptions, transition periods, or carve-outs on specific EU policies. Ukraine does not need to become a member of the European Union for this market to resolve to "Yes". Ratification of the agreement by EU member states, the Ukrainian parliament, or other legislative bodies is not required for this market to resolve "Yes." Preliminary agreements, association agreements, framework agreements, or membership or potential membership in the European Economic Area alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the European Commission, European Council, or Government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.