Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 10.0¢
- Implied chance
- 10.0%
- Return if right
- 900.0%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $52.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.0¢
- Implied chance
- 91.0%
- Return if right
- 9.9%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.
NO wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ukraine Reports First Combat Use of Its Own Ballistic MissileThe New York Times · 2h ago
- Ukraine calls for tighter sanctions as Russian attacks spark Kyiv gridlockAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- Ukraine Attacks Key Russian Refinery and Oil Pipeline HubBloomberg · 6h ago
- Ukraine: Kyiv bridges shut after fatal Russian drone assaultDeutsche Welle · 7h ago
- Russia tries to freeze Ukraine as it suffers record casualties and retreatsAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- South Korea demands Ukraine apology, warns of actionDeutsche Welle · 10h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.