Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 98.8¢
- Implied chance
- 98.8%
- Return if right
- 1.2%
- Spread cost
- 48%
If you put in $100
You get 101.2 shares at 98.8¢ each.
YES wins: $101.21 back, a profit of $1.21. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.35.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 3.4¢
- Implied chance
- 3.4%
- Return if right
- 2841.2%
- Spread cost
- 33%
If you put in $100
You get 2941.2 shares at 3.4¢ each.
NO wins: $2941.18 back, a profit of $2841.18. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1406.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $4247.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Zelenskyy says Ukraine sent two North Korean POWs to South KoreaAl Jazeera · 46m ago
- The long-range drone war: Ukraine and Russia scramble for supremacy in the skiesThe Guardian · 5h ago
- Ukraine Sent Two North Korean P.O.W.s to South Korea, Zelensky SaysThe New York Times · 5h ago
- OpenAI Gives Ukraine Access to Daybreak AI Cyber-Defense ToolDecrypt · 11h ago
- ‘My friend’: Anthony Albanese announces $60m more for Ukraine at Zelenskyy meetingThe Guardian · 14h ago
- Ukraine’s Zelenskyy calls for sustained pressure to end ‘Putin’s crazy war’Al Jazeera · 14h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.