Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 50.0¢
- Implied chance
- 50.0%
- Return if right
- 100.0%
- Spread cost
- 45%
If you put in $100
You get 200.0 shares at 50.0¢ each.
YES wins: $200.00 back, a profit of $100.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $81.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $181.69.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 79.0¢
- Implied chance
- 79.0%
- Return if right
- 26.6%
- Spread cost
- 52%
If you put in $100
You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.
NO wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $28.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $55.04.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Middle East: Trump took secret flight out of Turkey over Iran threatDeutsche Welle · 53m ago
- Turkey's parliament approves a pardon-like bill for thousands of PKK militantsNPR · 54m ago
- Trump secretly switched to different plane in Turkey amid Iran threatCBS News · 1h ago
- Trump hid in catering container to board secret flight in Turkey amid Iran threat – reportsThe Guardian · 4h ago
- Trump Said to Have Secretly Used Military Jet to Leave Turkey Amid ThreatsThe New York Times · 7h ago
- Turkey MPs back historic law on reintegrating PKK militantsDeutsche Welle · 9h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur: - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner; - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or - the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components. Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met. Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.