Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 30.0¢
- Implied chance
- 30.0%
- Return if right
- 233.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 333.3 shares at 30.0¢ each.
YES wins: $333.33 back, a profit of $233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $238.98.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 71.0¢
- Implied chance
- 71.0%
- Return if right
- 40.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 140.8 shares at 71.0¢ each.
NO wins: $140.85 back, a profit of $40.85. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $41.84.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Australia and Turkey criticised for hosting UN climate conference while embracing coalThe Guardian · 17h ago
- Turkey: Stock market scandal hits half a million investorsDeutsche Welle · 3d ago
- Turkey's stock market scandal affects nearly half a million investors. Police have made several arrests and an AKP politician has resigned.Deutsche Welle · 3d ago
- Norway Fund Bought Tera-Run Turkey IPO That Plunged in WeeksBloomberg · 4d ago
- Turkey Wants Fund Investors to Give Back ‘Excessive’ ProfitsBloomberg · 4d ago
- ‘What Remains’ Review: A Pensive but Stirring Drama Finds Poetry in the Landscapes of Rural TurkeyVariety · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur: - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner; - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or - the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components. Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met. Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.