Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Q: Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.6¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2677.8% over 2.1y.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028$262k liquidity$13.8M volumecloses 2.1y

United StatesPoliticsUS ElectionElectionsWorld ElectionsGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.6¢
Implied chance: 3.6%
Return if right: 2677.8%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 2777.8 shares at 3.6¢ each.

YES wins: $2777.78 back, a profit of $2677.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $163.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $2841.18.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 96.8¢
Implied chance: 96.8%
Return if right: 3.3%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 103.3 shares at 96.8¢ each.

NO wins: $103.31 back, a profit of $3.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.52.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Tucker Carlson3.4%

Latest: Sep 22, 08:09 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nom…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.