Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 30.0¢
- Implied chance
- 30.0%
- Return if right
- 233.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 333.3 shares at 30.0¢ each.
YES wins: $333.33 back, a profit of $233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $238.98.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 71.0¢
- Implied chance
- 71.0%
- Return if right
- 40.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 140.8 shares at 71.0¢ each.
NO wins: $140.85 back, a profit of $40.85. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $41.84.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.