Will Trump visit Greenland by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.0¢
- Implied chance
- 3.0%
- Return if right
- 3233.3%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 3333.3 shares at 3.0¢ each.
YES wins: $3333.33 back, a profit of $3233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2072.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $5305.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.3¢
- Implied chance
- 99.3%
- Return if right
- 0.7%
- Spread cost
- 63%
If you put in $100
You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.
NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- US war on Iran: Trump will ‘declare victory and go home’, embracing the ‘Greenland option’France 24 · 1h ago
- Why does Greenland matter to the US?Al Jazeera · 9h ago
- Why Greenland and Denmark agreed to a deal with TrumpCBS News · 15h ago
- Trump Once Vowed to ‘Own’ Greenland. He Settled for Something Much Less.The New York Times · 1d ago
- Trump signs 'tremendous' Greenland security dealDeutsche Welle · 1d ago
- US signs ‘tremendous’ security deal with Denmark and GreenlandAl Jazeera · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump visit Greenland by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.