Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.7¢
- Implied chance
- 5.7%
- Return if right
- 1654.4%
- Spread cost
- 42%
If you put in $100
You get 1754.4 shares at 5.7¢ each.
YES wins: $1754.39 back, a profit of $1654.39. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1186.79 of that profit. Without it you would make $2841.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.9¢
- Implied chance
- 98.9%
- Return if right
- 1.1%
- Spread cost
- 68%
If you put in $100
You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.
NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.52.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Glen Powell wants no part of political fights that divide peopleFox News · 4d ago
- Glen Powell Says He Doesn’t Want to Talk Politics, Blames Paramount Marketing Cuts for ‘The Running Man’ Box Office PerformanceThe Hollywood Reporter · 5d ago
- Glen Powell Is Staying Quiet on Politics Because ‘I Do Not Like the Discourse,’ Says ‘Running Man’ Flopped After Paramount Laid Off ‘Entire Marketing Department’Variety · 5d ago
- Skydance Adds Bobby Kotick and Laurene Powell Jobs to Board, Taps Tony Blair as AdviserVariety · 6d ago
- Bobby Kotick and Laurene Powell Jobs Join Skydance Board of DirectorsThe Hollywood Reporter · 6d ago
- UK Security Adviser Jonathan Powell Traveled to Israel Ahead of Consulate ClosureThe New York Times · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by October…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.