Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?

Q: Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 10%. A YES share costs 10.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 900.0% over 27d.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?$11k liquidity$4k volumecloses 27d

TrumpPoliticsGeopolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 10.0¢
Implied chance: 10.0%
Return if right: 900.0%
Spread cost: 22%

If you put in $100

You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $250.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $1150.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.0¢
Implied chance: 94.0%
Return if right: 6.4%
Spread cost: 27%

If you put in $100

You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.

NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.70.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Oct 5, 06:43 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.