Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.6¢
- Implied chance
- 8.6%
- Return if right
- 1062.8%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 1162.8 shares at 8.6¢ each.
YES wins: $1162.79 back, a profit of $1062.79. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $87.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $1150.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.6¢
- Implied chance
- 92.6%
- Return if right
- 8.0%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 108.0 shares at 92.6¢ each.
NO wins: $107.99 back, a profit of $7.99. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.70 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.