Will Trump praise Kevin Warsh in August?

Q: Will Trump praise Kevin Warsh in August?

Prediction markets currently price this at 97%. A YES share costs 97.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 3.1% over 21d.

Who will Trump publicly praise in August?$2k liquidity$2k volumecloses 21d

TrumpCulturePolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 97.0¢
Implied chance: 97.0%
Return if right: 3.1%
Spread cost: 56%

If you put in $100

You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.

YES wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.95.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 10.0¢
Implied chance: 10.0%
Return if right: 900.0%
Spread cost: 37%

If you put in $100

You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.

NO wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $538.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $1438.46.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 11, 11:39 AM

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump praise Kevin Warsh in August?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises the listed individual between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the listed individual personally or professionally. This can include direct praise (e.g., “He/She is smart,” “He’s/She's a great leader”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“impressive,” “strong,” “brilliant,” “doing a great job”) made in reference to the listed individual. Any statement that clearly expresses approval, admiration, or endorsement of the listed individual personally qualifies for this market regardless of context (e.g., "He/She is very smart, but he/she doesn’t seem to know that this policy will harm more of his/her constituents." would qualify). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “We had a good meeting”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.