Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?

Q: Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 4.2¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2281.0% over 3.2mo.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?$9k liquidity$6k volumecloses 3.2mo

SBFSam bankman freidPoliticsTrump

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 4.2¢
Implied chance: 4.2%
Return if right: 2281.0%
Spread cost: 39%

If you put in $100

You get 2381.0 shares at 4.2¢ each.

YES wins: $2380.95 back, a profit of $2280.95. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1465.20 of that profit. Without it you would make $3746.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.0¢
Implied chance: 99.0%
Return if right: 1.0%
Spread cost: 62%

If you put in $100

You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.

NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 04:08 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.