Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.0¢
- Implied chance
- 5.0%
- Return if right
- 1900.0%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 2000.0 shares at 5.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2000.00 back, a profit of $1900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $222.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $2122.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- US judge denies Ghislaine Maxwell’s ‘frivolous’ bid to throw out convictionAl Jazeera · 1mo ago
- Ghislaine Maxwell's bid to overturn conviction rejectedAxios · 1mo ago
- Judge rejects Ghislaine Maxwell’s sex-trafficking appeal, calling claims ‘demonstrably meritless’The Guardian · 1mo ago
- Federal judge slaps down Ghislaine Maxwell petition for new trial as ‘rambling,’ ‘meritless’Fox News · 1mo ago
- Judge rejects Ghislaine Maxwell's effort to overturn sex-trafficking convictionCBS News · 1mo ago
- Judge rejects Ghislaine Maxwell’s bid to toss conviction and warns against further appealsNBC News · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.