Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 7.0¢
- Implied chance
- 7.0%
- Return if right
- 1328.6%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 1428.6 shares at 7.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1428.57 back, a profit of $1328.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $109.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $1438.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- To the victor belong Venezuela’s spoils: Delcy Rodriguez’s UNGA about-faceAl Jazeera · 12h ago
- Venezuela's acting leader promises elections at the 'right moment'NPR · 16h ago
- Venezuela’s Rodriguez pledges elections, path forward in UNGA speechAl Jazeera · 19h ago
- Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez promises elections at UN, gives no dateAl Jazeera · 20h ago
- Interim Leader of Venezuela Promises Elections and ‘Orderly Legal Transition’The New York Times · 20h ago
- After Warm Meeting With Trump, Venezuela’s Leader Is Set to Address U.N.The New York Times · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela presid…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.