Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.2¢
- Implied chance
- 3.2%
- Return if right
- 3025.0%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 3125.0 shares at 3.2¢ each.
YES wins: $3125.00 back, a profit of $3025.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1420.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $4445.45.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.8¢
- Implied chance
- 98.8%
- Return if right
- 1.2%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 101.2 shares at 98.8¢ each.
NO wins: $101.21 back, a profit of $1.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Chagos Islands deal ‘can’t go ahead’ without US support, Streeting saysThe Guardian · 15d ago
- UK to review Chagos Islands deal over lack of US support, Streeting tells BBCBBC Politics · 15d ago
- Maldives asks UK to reopen sovereignty talks over Chagos IslandsAl Jazeera · 29d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Isl…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that at least some territory on the Chagos Islands will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of any of the Chagos Archipelago from either the United Kingdom or Mauritius to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. Basing rights, military leases, or access agreements alone do not constitute sovereignty transfer. An official announcement made by the United States and either the United Kingdom or Mauritius that territory within the Chagos Archipelago will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur or if such announcement is pending ratification, parliamentary approval, or other conditional legislative steps. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, United Kingdom, or Mauritius, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that land on the Chagos Archipelago has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.